| Résumé: | As elsewhere in coastal and island New Guinea, population in the Purari delta underwent severe decline after European contact, showing resurgence only across the second half of the twentieth century. While population processes in New Guinea after about 1950 are reasonably mapped, understanding of population change at earlier times remains poor. In this chapter, patterns of population change in one region of lowland Papua, the Purari delta, are described from early colonial times to the year 1996, and possible reasons for the decline and subsequent resurgence examined. It is argued that the population decline in the early colonial period could largely be attributed to infectious diseases introduced with the contact experience, and to low crude birth rate associated with the recruitment of adult males for plantation labour. It is also argued that the population increase in the later colonial period and after independence in 1975 may be attributed to the introduction and increased availability of biomedical practice, and improved nutrition. It is suggested that the latter factor has lead [<em>sic</em>] to increased fecundity of women, while both factors have led to greater survivorship of young children. High total fertility rates (TFR) and population increase post-independence is examined in relation to economic change and modernization using demographic data collected by the author in 1995 and 1997. Multiple regression analysis shows that young child mortality and maternal income level are important factors supporting the maintenance of high fertility, while maternal education is associated with reduced TFR. It is also argued that one characteristic of the continued use of palm sago for subsistence and as an income-generating commodity has allowed economic change without reduced survivorship of young children.
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