On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability
The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a ti...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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2011
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| _version_ | 1797062233418629120 |
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| author | Franzke, C Woollings, T |
| author_facet | Franzke, C Woollings, T |
| author_sort | Franzke, C |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. © 2011 American Meteorological Society. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T20:42:35Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T20:42:35Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d62022-03-26T13:28:03ZOn the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate VariabilityJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:34c30b5c-79e1-46e0-9fdd-c4b713f081d6EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2011Franzke, CWoollings, TThe persistence and climate noise properties of North Atlantic climate variability are of importance for trend identification and assessing predictability on all time scales from several days to many decades. Here, the authors analyze these properties by applying empirical mode decomposition to a time series of the latitude of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. In previous studies, it has been argued that a slow decay of the autocorrelation function at large lags suggests potential extended-range predictability during the winter season. The authors show that the increased autocorrelation time scale does not necessarily lead to enhanced intraseasonal predictive skill. They estimate the fraction of interannual variability that likely arises due to climate noise as 43%-48% in winter and 70%-71% in summer. The analysis also indentifies a significant poleward trend of the jet stream that cannot be explained as arising from climate noise. These findings have important implications for the predictability of North Atlantic climate variability. © 2011 American Meteorological Society. |
| spellingShingle | Franzke, C Woollings, T On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title | On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title_full | On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title_fullStr | On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title_short | On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability |
| title_sort | on the persistence and predictability properties of north atlantic climate variability |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT franzkec onthepersistenceandpredictabilitypropertiesofnorthatlanticclimatevariability AT woollingst onthepersistenceandpredictabilitypropertiesofnorthatlanticclimatevariability |