Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes
The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer Nature
2021
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| _version_ | 1797107124017299456 |
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| author | Kikstra, JS Vinca, A Lovat, F Boza-Kiss, B van Ruijven, B Wilson, C Rogelj, J Zakeri, B Fricko, O Riahi, K |
| author_facet | Kikstra, JS Vinca, A Lovat, F Boza-Kiss, B van Ruijven, B Wilson, C Rogelj, J Zakeri, B Fricko, O Riahi, K |
| author_sort | Kikstra, JS |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:12:00Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:381e29be-30bc-44b1-a2b2-de6aa7c0a5a5 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:12:00Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:381e29be-30bc-44b1-a2b2-de6aa7c0a5a52022-06-30T14:50:24ZClimate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changesJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:381e29be-30bc-44b1-a2b2-de6aa7c0a5a5EnglishSymplectic ElementsSpringer Nature2021Kikstra, JSVinca, ALovat, FBoza-Kiss, Bvan Ruijven, BWilson, CRogelj, JZakeri, BFricko, ORiahi, KThe COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies. |
| spellingShingle | Kikstra, JS Vinca, A Lovat, F Boza-Kiss, B van Ruijven, B Wilson, C Rogelj, J Zakeri, B Fricko, O Riahi, K Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title | Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title_full | Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title_fullStr | Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title_short | Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes |
| title_sort | climate mitigation scenarios with persistent covid 19 related energy demand changes |
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