On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

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Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forec...

Disgrifiad llawn

Manylion Llyfryddiaeth
Prif Awduron:	Castle, J, Hendry, D
Fformat:	Working paper
Cyhoeddwyd:	University of Oxford 2011

Eitemau Tebyg

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
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Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
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Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks.
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Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting
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Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting.
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Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?
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