On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

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Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forec...

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Bibliografiske detaljer
Main Authors:	Castle, J, Hendry, D
Format:	Working paper
Udgivet:	University of Oxford 2011

Lignende værker

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

On Not Evaluating Economic Models by Forecast Outcomes.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting facing economic shifts, climate change and evolving pandemics
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Selecting a model for forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2017)

Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling.
af: Clements, M, et al.
Udgivet: (1995)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2012)

Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2008)

Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2008)

Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modelling and forecasting
af: Hendry, D
Udgivet: (2011)

Unpredictability in Economic Analyis, Econometric Modelling and Forecasting.
af: Hendry, D
Udgivet: (2011)

Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2023)

Robust approaches to forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2014)

Robust approaches to forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2015)

Mathematical models and economic forecasting: some uses and mis-uses of mathematics in economics
af: Hendry, D
Udgivet: (2011)

Mathematical Models and Economic Forecasting: Some Uses and Mis-Uses of Mathematics in Economics.
af: Hendry, D
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics
af: Jennifer L. Castle, et al.
Udgivet: (2021-12-01)

Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Forecasting UK inflation: the roles of structural breaks and time disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Forecasting UK inflation: the roles of structural breaks and time disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2012)

An overview of forecasting facing breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2009)

An overview of forecasting facing breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2009)

Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting.
af: Hendry, D
Udgivet: (2004)

Forecasting principles from experience with forecasting competitions
af: Castle, JL, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting an essential introduction
af: Castle, C, et al.
Udgivet: (2019)

Forecasting Economic Processes.
af: Clements, M, et al.
Udgivet: (1998)

Policy analysis, forediction, and forecast failure
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2013)

Selecting a Model for Forecasting
af: Jennifer L. Castle, et al.
Udgivet: (2021-06-01)

Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic time-series data
af: Doornik, JA, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting
af: Hendry, DF, et al.
Udgivet: (2014)

Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates.
af: Hendry, D, et al.
Udgivet: (2006)

Forecasting economic time series
af: Clements, M, et al.
Udgivet: (1998)