Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks
We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley-Blackwell
2010
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| _version_ | 1797063872267419648 |
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| author | Ćirković, M Sandberg, A Bostrom, N |
| author2 | Society for Risk Analysis |
| author_facet | Society for Risk Analysis Ćirković, M Sandberg, A Bostrom, N |
| author_sort | Ćirković, M |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of the anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T21:06:10Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:3c886326-134f-4636-ada7-827356b7892e |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T21:06:10Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Wiley-Blackwell |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:3c886326-134f-4636-ada7-827356b7892e2022-03-26T14:14:10ZAnthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risksJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:3c886326-134f-4636-ada7-827356b7892ePhilosophyEnglishOxford University Research Archive - ValetWiley-Blackwell2010Ćirković, MSandberg, ABostrom, NSociety for Risk AnalysisWe describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of the anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work. |
| spellingShingle | Philosophy Ćirković, M Sandberg, A Bostrom, N Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title | Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title_full | Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title_fullStr | Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title_short | Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| title_sort | anthropic shadow observation selection effects and human extinction risks |
| topic | Philosophy |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cirkovicm anthropicshadowobservationselectioneffectsandhumanextinctionrisks AT sandberga anthropicshadowobservationselectioneffectsandhumanextinctionrisks AT bostromn anthropicshadowobservationselectioneffectsandhumanextinctionrisks |