SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer
Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall su...
| Główni autorzy: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Język: | English |
| Wydane: |
MDPI
2019
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| _version_ | 1826268402584387584 |
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| author | Van Den Boorn, HG Abu-Hanna, A Veer, E Van Kleef, JJ Lordick, F Stahl, M Ajani, JA Guimbaud, R Park, SH Dutton, SJ Bang, Y-J Boku, N Mohammad, NH Sprangers, MAG Verhoeven, RHA Zwinderman, AH Van Oijen, MGH Van Laarhoven, HWM |
| author_facet | Van Den Boorn, HG Abu-Hanna, A Veer, E Van Kleef, JJ Lordick, F Stahl, M Ajani, JA Guimbaud, R Park, SH Dutton, SJ Bang, Y-J Boku, N Mohammad, NH Sprangers, MAG Verhoeven, RHA Zwinderman, AH Van Oijen, MGH Van Laarhoven, HWM |
| author_sort | Van Den Boorn, HG |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T21:09:08Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:3d88c5a4-201d-4865-a522-086bcc449fb6 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T21:09:08Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | MDPI |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:3d88c5a4-201d-4865-a522-086bcc449fb62022-03-26T14:20:01ZSOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancerJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:3d88c5a4-201d-4865-a522-086bcc449fb6EnglishSymplectic Elements at OxfordMDPI2019Van Den Boorn, HGAbu-Hanna, AVeer, EVan Kleef, JJLordick, FStahl, MAjani, JAGuimbaud, RPark, SHDutton, SJBang, Y-JBoku, NMohammad, NHSprangers, MAGVerhoeven, RHAZwinderman, AHVan Oijen, MGHVan Laarhoven, HWMPrediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005⁻2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making. |
| spellingShingle | Van Den Boorn, HG Abu-Hanna, A Veer, E Van Kleef, JJ Lordick, F Stahl, M Ajani, JA Guimbaud, R Park, SH Dutton, SJ Bang, Y-J Boku, N Mohammad, NH Sprangers, MAG Verhoeven, RHA Zwinderman, AH Van Oijen, MGH Van Laarhoven, HWM SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title | SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title_full | SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title_fullStr | SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title_full_unstemmed | SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title_short | SOURCE: A registry-based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
| title_sort | source a registry based prediction model for overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer |
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