Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R<sub>t</sub>, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R<sub...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022
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| _version_ | 1826311206815662080 |
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| author | Parag, KV Thompson, RN Donnelly, CA |
| author_facet | Parag, KV Thompson, RN Donnelly, CA |
| author_sort | Parag, KV |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R<sub>t</sub>, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R<sub>t</sub> encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, r<sub>t</sub>, that is, the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if
and when estimates of r<sub>t</sub> are more informative than
those of R<sub>t</sub>. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T08:06:22Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:48adb54c-ae14-402c-95d0-e95870d466b4 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T08:06:22Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:48adb54c-ae14-402c-95d0-e95870d466b42023-11-01T15:33:28ZAre epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:48adb54c-ae14-402c-95d0-e95870d466b4EnglishSymplectic ElementsWiley2022Parag, KVThompson, RNDonnelly, CASummary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R<sub>t</sub>, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R<sub>t</sub> encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, r<sub>t</sub>, that is, the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of r<sub>t</sub> are more informative than those of R<sub>t</sub>. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time. |
| spellingShingle | Parag, KV Thompson, RN Donnelly, CA Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title | Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title_full | Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title_fullStr | Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title_short | Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers? |
| title_sort | are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT paragkv areepidemicgrowthratesmoreinformativethanreproductionnumbers AT thompsonrn areepidemicgrowthratesmoreinformativethanreproductionnumbers AT donnellyca areepidemicgrowthratesmoreinformativethanreproductionnumbers |