External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference
<p>Weary of the costs and condemnation associated with large-scale military intervention, countries increasingly rely on the provision of external military assistance to influence civil wars in their favour. The provision of weapons, matériel, and training with a military purpose aims to build...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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2020
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| _version_ | 1797111695197339648 |
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| author | Meier, V |
| author2 | Ruggeri, A |
| author_facet | Ruggeri, A Meier, V |
| author_sort | Meier, V |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <p>Weary of the costs and condemnation associated with large-scale military intervention, countries increasingly rely on the provision of external military assistance to influence civil wars in their favour. The provision of weapons, matériel, and training with a military purpose aims to build local capacity to help partner militaries quell domestic insurgencies. Yet, such capacity building can potentially produce unintended consequences for regime stability and citizens’ safety. This thesis thus inquires how the provision of external military assistance affects actors’ incentives and strategies on the ground. By examining actors’ participation in three forms of political violence—coup d’état, one-sided violence, and domestic terrorism—it allows for a comprehensive examination of violent strategies during civil war. The first paper, ‘Building Capacity or Exacerbating Instability? US Military Training, External Military Assistance, and War-Time Coup Risk’ examines the effect of US military training on the risk of military coup during civil war and compares it to the effects of non-US support. The second paper, ‘‘Trained and Equipped’ to Kill Civilians? Quality of External Military Assistance and Government Forces’ Targeting Profiles in Civil Wars’ focuses on government forces’ use of violence against civilians depending on the military sophistication of the support provided. The third paper, ‘Trading One Problem for Another? External Military Assistance and Rebels’ Use of Terrorist Tactics in Civil Wars’ explores rebels’ reliance on terrorist tactics in response to externally-backed government forces and hypothesises the role of democratic external supporters in enticing terrorist backlash. Drawing upon original data on external support for the period 1975-2017, I assess these relationships empirically using large-N statistical analysis and a matching strategy to account for the non-random provision of external military assistance. Findings suggest that external military assistance can reduce coup risk in case of non-US support but is linked to higher levels of violence against civilians and terrorist violence depending on the type of supporter and support provided.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T08:12:27Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oxford-uuid:49a473a0-3d35-4e2e-966a-613ac5c0406b |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T08:12:27Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:49a473a0-3d35-4e2e-966a-613ac5c0406b2023-12-08T10:42:39ZExternal military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interferenceThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06uuid:49a473a0-3d35-4e2e-966a-613ac5c0406bCivil warEnglishHyrax Deposit2020Meier, VRuggeri, AMacFarlane , NBussmann, M<p>Weary of the costs and condemnation associated with large-scale military intervention, countries increasingly rely on the provision of external military assistance to influence civil wars in their favour. The provision of weapons, matériel, and training with a military purpose aims to build local capacity to help partner militaries quell domestic insurgencies. Yet, such capacity building can potentially produce unintended consequences for regime stability and citizens’ safety. This thesis thus inquires how the provision of external military assistance affects actors’ incentives and strategies on the ground. By examining actors’ participation in three forms of political violence—coup d’état, one-sided violence, and domestic terrorism—it allows for a comprehensive examination of violent strategies during civil war. The first paper, ‘Building Capacity or Exacerbating Instability? US Military Training, External Military Assistance, and War-Time Coup Risk’ examines the effect of US military training on the risk of military coup during civil war and compares it to the effects of non-US support. The second paper, ‘‘Trained and Equipped’ to Kill Civilians? Quality of External Military Assistance and Government Forces’ Targeting Profiles in Civil Wars’ focuses on government forces’ use of violence against civilians depending on the military sophistication of the support provided. The third paper, ‘Trading One Problem for Another? External Military Assistance and Rebels’ Use of Terrorist Tactics in Civil Wars’ explores rebels’ reliance on terrorist tactics in response to externally-backed government forces and hypothesises the role of democratic external supporters in enticing terrorist backlash. Drawing upon original data on external support for the period 1975-2017, I assess these relationships empirically using large-N statistical analysis and a matching strategy to account for the non-random provision of external military assistance. Findings suggest that external military assistance can reduce coup risk in case of non-US support but is linked to higher levels of violence against civilians and terrorist violence depending on the type of supporter and support provided.</p> |
| spellingShingle | Civil war Meier, V External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title | External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title_full | External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title_fullStr | External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title_full_unstemmed | External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title_short | External military assistance to civil wars: the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| title_sort | external military assistance to civil wars the unintended effects of intentional interference |
| topic | Civil war |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT meierv externalmilitaryassistancetocivilwarstheunintendedeffectsofintentionalinterference |