The ends of 27 big depressions
How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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American Economic Association
2024
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| _version_ | 1817931546346127360 |
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| author | Ellison, M Lee, SS O'Rourke, K |
| author_facet | Ellison, M Lee, SS O'Rourke, K |
| author_sort | Ellison, M |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on well-defined dates, inflationary expectations clearly rose in the wake of departure. Instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T08:20:00Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:4eab638d-61a2-43c1-86af-7bb06264810c |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-09T03:23:44Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | American Economic Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:4eab638d-61a2-43c1-86af-7bb06264810c2024-11-26T11:24:17ZThe ends of 27 big depressionsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:4eab638d-61a2-43c1-86af-7bb06264810cEnglishSymplectic ElementsAmerican Economic Association2024Ellison, MLee, SSO'Rourke, KHow did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper, we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations, lowering real interest rates, and stimulating interest-sensitive expenditures. We do so for a sample of 27 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on well-defined dates, inflationary expectations clearly rose in the wake of departure. Instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. |
| spellingShingle | Ellison, M Lee, SS O'Rourke, K The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title | The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title_full | The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title_fullStr | The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title_full_unstemmed | The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title_short | The ends of 27 big depressions |
| title_sort | ends of 27 big depressions |
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