Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin
<p>The Uruguay River is a transboundary river of great economic importance in South America. Its headwaters lie in southern Brazil, the middle reach forms part of the Brazil-Argentina border, the lower reach forms the Argentina-Uruguay border, and it then empties into the La Plata River with a...
| Huvudupphovsmän: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Materialtyp: | Journal article |
| Publicerad: |
American Meteorological Society
2019
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| _version_ | 1826272240208969728 |
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| author | De Abreu, R Cunningham, C Rudorff, C Rudorff, N Abatan, A Tett, S Dong, B Lott, F Sparrow, S |
| author_facet | De Abreu, R Cunningham, C Rudorff, C Rudorff, N Abatan, A Tett, S Dong, B Lott, F Sparrow, S |
| author_sort | De Abreu, R |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <p>The Uruguay River is a transboundary river of great economic importance in South America. Its headwaters lie in southern Brazil, the middle reach forms part of the Brazil-Argentina border, the lower reach forms the Argentina-Uruguay border, and it then empties into the La Plata River with a catchment area of 3.65 × 105 km2. The river basin has a temperate climate with annual mean precipitation of 1,750 mm with little seasonality. During the late twentieth century, the Uruguay basin had a positive trend in precipitation (Barros et al. 2008) and streamflow (Pasquini and Depetris 2007). Based on hydrological modeling, Saurral et al. (2008) attributed the 1960-2000 streamflow trend mainly to the increase in precipitation rather than land cover change. The upper Uruguay River catchment has relatively high relief, low soil storage capacity, and land use is mostly pasture and cropland. Therefore, the catchment has a fast hydrologic response in which flood occurrence is more dependent on meteorology than on initial conditions of soil moisture and flow (Tucci et al. 2003). A cascade of hydroelectric dams is used for flood control operations. However, when more persistent and intensive rainfall systems develop over the upper catchment, the high soil moisture, fast rainfall-runoff response and limited storage capacity of reservoirs overwhelm the flood control operations and result in downstream flooding. Flood related impacts have also increased, resulting in a growing concern regarding the need to identify the causes of increased flood frequency and establish effective mitigation efforts.</p> <br/> <p>Explaining the increase in flood frequency requires assessing the role of climate change in shifting the likelihood of extreme rainfall events over the catchment and building more detailed understanding of ongoing changes in the linkage between rainfall and hydrological mechanisms that cause flooding in this flow regulated catchment. To address the former, we analyzed the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of the heavy rainfall that occurred in April-May 2017, which led to widespread overbank flooding along the Uruguay River that peaked in June causing significant impacts such as direct economic loss in Brazil of 102 million U.S. dollars (FAMURS 2017) and displacement of more than 3,500 people in Uruguay (BBC 2017).</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T22:09:25Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:514969d6-ea3e-4378-bf99-2b6b001ff092 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T22:09:25Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:514969d6-ea3e-4378-bf99-2b6b001ff0922022-03-26T16:18:41ZContribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basinJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:514969d6-ea3e-4378-bf99-2b6b001ff092Symplectic Elements at OxfordAmerican Meteorological Society2019De Abreu, RCunningham, CRudorff, CRudorff, NAbatan, ATett, SDong, BLott, FSparrow, S<p>The Uruguay River is a transboundary river of great economic importance in South America. Its headwaters lie in southern Brazil, the middle reach forms part of the Brazil-Argentina border, the lower reach forms the Argentina-Uruguay border, and it then empties into the La Plata River with a catchment area of 3.65 × 105 km2. The river basin has a temperate climate with annual mean precipitation of 1,750 mm with little seasonality. During the late twentieth century, the Uruguay basin had a positive trend in precipitation (Barros et al. 2008) and streamflow (Pasquini and Depetris 2007). Based on hydrological modeling, Saurral et al. (2008) attributed the 1960-2000 streamflow trend mainly to the increase in precipitation rather than land cover change. The upper Uruguay River catchment has relatively high relief, low soil storage capacity, and land use is mostly pasture and cropland. Therefore, the catchment has a fast hydrologic response in which flood occurrence is more dependent on meteorology than on initial conditions of soil moisture and flow (Tucci et al. 2003). A cascade of hydroelectric dams is used for flood control operations. However, when more persistent and intensive rainfall systems develop over the upper catchment, the high soil moisture, fast rainfall-runoff response and limited storage capacity of reservoirs overwhelm the flood control operations and result in downstream flooding. Flood related impacts have also increased, resulting in a growing concern regarding the need to identify the causes of increased flood frequency and establish effective mitigation efforts.</p> <br/> <p>Explaining the increase in flood frequency requires assessing the role of climate change in shifting the likelihood of extreme rainfall events over the catchment and building more detailed understanding of ongoing changes in the linkage between rainfall and hydrological mechanisms that cause flooding in this flow regulated catchment. To address the former, we analyzed the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of the heavy rainfall that occurred in April-May 2017, which led to widespread overbank flooding along the Uruguay River that peaked in June causing significant impacts such as direct economic loss in Brazil of 102 million U.S. dollars (FAMURS 2017) and displacement of more than 3,500 people in Uruguay (BBC 2017).</p> |
| spellingShingle | De Abreu, R Cunningham, C Rudorff, C Rudorff, N Abatan, A Tett, S Dong, B Lott, F Sparrow, S Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title | Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title_full | Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title_fullStr | Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title_short | Contribution of anthropogenic climate change to April–May 2017 heavy precipitation over the Uruguay river basin |
| title_sort | contribution of anthropogenic climate change to april may 2017 heavy precipitation over the uruguay river basin |
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