Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting.
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most lik...
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| Format: | Working paper |
| Language: | English |
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Nuffield College (University of Oxford)
2004
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