| Summary: | <p>Fiscal decision making—where and how to tax and spend—is complicated. It is especially complicated amidst rapid technological innovation and dramatic economic shifts to limit climate change. Despite efforts to integrate social and environmental criteria into fiscal decision making, many policy makers continue to rely mostly on conventional criteria—mainly, jobs and growth. This thesis meets these policy makers where they are by considering whether investments with positive climate mitigation characteristics might be superior to traditional investments, based solely on conventional metrics. In doing so, it investigates, critically analyses, and builds on the green growth literature using original datasets as well as novel applications of established and adapted methods.</p>
<p>Three papers are introduced, each providing a unique perspective on the economic characteristics of green investment using the coronavirus (COVID-19) economic shock as the instructive event. The first paper uses natural language processing methods to synthesise existing literature on the economic characteristics of green investment. The second paper surveys leading economists to understand how they perceive the characteristics of green investment. Supplementary analysis with machine learning provides further insights. Extending significantly from the first two papers, the third paper introduces two new datasets to understand sectoral and global variation in actual COVID-19 investment and the degree to which economic and other factors drove this variation. The datasets are validated with manual and machine learning methods.</p>
<p>Based on these papers, this DPhil answers three core questions. First, on conventional economic indicators, are climate mitigation investments attractive compared to alternatives: <em>yes, in many cases</em>. Second, are some measures better than others: <em>yes, but the most appropriate measures depend on the economic context and policy design</em>. Finally, does the answer change between economies: <em>yes, mitigation investments are promising in all economies, but the most attractive measures vary based on factors including level of development, human capital, existing economic structures, and present unemployment</em>. A discussion chapter synthesises findings, highlighting interdependencies and implications for research and policy.</p>
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