The macroeconomic impact of Trump
How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years of his presidential term, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Oxford
2020
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| Summary: | How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of
the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years
of his presidential term, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this
note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved
without Trump—we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other
economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the
post-election performance of the US economy to this synthetic “doppelganger”. There is
little evidence for a Trump effect. |
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