Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique.
Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors,'sensible' agents should adopt 'robust forecasting rules'. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in foreca...
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| 格式: | Working paper |
| 语言: | English |
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Nuffield College (University of Oxford)
2000
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