Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance

Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance

Economic policy agencies produce forecasts with accompanying narratives, and base policy changes on the resulting anticipated developments in the target variables. Systematic forecast failure, defined as large, persistent deviations of the outturns from the numerical forecasts, can make the associat...

Fuld beskrivelse

Bibliografiske detaljer
Main Authors:	Castle, J, Hendry, D, Martinez, A
Format:	Journal article
Udgivet:	MDPI 2017

Lignende værker

Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance
af: Jennifer L. Castle, et al.
Udgivet: (2017-09-01)

Testing the invariance of expectations models of inflation
af: Hendry, D, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

Policy analysis, forediction, and forecast failure
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2014)

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

On Not Evaluating Economic Models by Forecast Outcomes.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2011)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2012)

Testing Superexogeneity and Invariance in Regression Models.
af: Engle, R, et al.
Udgivet: (1993)

Testing Super Exogeneity and Invariance in Regression Models.
af: Engle, R, et al.
Udgivet: (1994)

Testing Super Exogeneity and Invariance in Regression Models.
af: Engle, R, et al.
Udgivet: (1990)

Robust approaches to forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2014)

Robust approaches to forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2015)

Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Forecasting UK inflation: the roles of structural breaks and time disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Forecasting UK inflation: the roles of structural breaks and time disaggregation
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2007)

Smooth robust multi-horizon forecasts
af: Martinez, AB, et al.
Udgivet: (2022)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2012)

An overview of forecasting facing breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Nowcasting is not just contemporaneous forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2009)

An overview of forecasting facing breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2009)

Selecting a model for forecasting
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting principles from experience with forecasting competitions
af: Castle, JL, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting an essential introduction
af: Castle, C, et al.
Udgivet: (2019)

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2013)

Forecasting and nowcasting macroeconomic variables: a methodological overview
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2017)

Forecasting and nowcasting macroeconomic variables: a methodological overview
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2013)

Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations
af: Hendry, D, et al.
Udgivet: (2017)

Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations
af: Hendry, D, et al.
Udgivet: (2016)

Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2008)

Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2010)

The value of robust statistical forecasts in the COVID-19 pandemic
af: Castle, JL, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks.
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2008)

Forecasting facing economic shifts, climate change and evolving pandemics
af: Castle, J, et al.
Udgivet: (2021)

Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions
af: Jennifer L. Castle, et al.
Udgivet: (2021-02-01)