Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance

Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance

Economic policy agencies produce forecasts with accompanying narratives, and base policy changes on the resulting anticipated developments in the target variables. Systematic forecast failure, defined as large, persistent deviations of the outturns from the numerical forecasts, can make the associat...

Bibliografski detalji
Glavni autori:	Castle, J, Hendry, D, Martinez, A
Format:	Journal article
Izdano:	MDPI 2017

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