Evaluating forecasts, narratives and policy using a test of invariance
Economic policy agencies produce forecasts with accompanying narratives, and base policy changes on the resulting anticipated developments in the target variables. Systematic forecast failure, defined as large, persistent deviations of the outturns from the numerical forecasts, can make the associat...
| 主要な著者: | , , |
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| フォーマット: | Journal article |
| 出版事項: |
MDPI
2017
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