Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?
A recent paper by Kraay (2003) documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper extends Kraay’s work by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2006
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| Subjects: |
| Summary: | A recent paper by Kraay (2003) documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper extends Kraay’s work by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises. |
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