Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa
The region of West Asia and North Africa has not only been termed a “hotspot” region for the adverse impact of climate change in light of extreme temperature increases. Several countries have also experienced protracted humanitarian crises and civil wars in the last two decades, such as those in Syr...
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
2024
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| _version_ | 1824458890285154304 |
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| author | Abdel Ghany, J |
| author_facet | Abdel Ghany, J |
| author_sort | Abdel Ghany, J |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The region of West Asia and North Africa has not only been termed a “hotspot” region for the adverse impact of climate change in light of extreme temperature increases. Several countries have also experienced protracted humanitarian crises and civil wars in the last two decades, such as those in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The vulnerability of these populations makes advancing our understanding of how climate change may impact migration patterns in the region a matter of urgency. This study examines whether extreme temperatures influence bilateral forced migration between countries within West Asia and North Africa through their potential to increase armed conflict. The findings suggest that extreme temperatures in two consecutive years, defined as the upper 10% of the country-specific annual mean temperature distribution, cumulatively increase the probability of armed conflict by 42.5% in the following year ( p = 0.07). Armed conflict is strongly associated with an increase in asylum flows, by 45.8 percentage points ( p = 0.00), and there is a weak indication that conflict mediates the relationship between extreme heat and asylum flows. This explorative study is the first to apply a regional displacement perspective to the climate-conflict-migration nexus in West Asia and North Africa. The results underline the importance of taking contextual factors into account in the analysis of environmental migration. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:33:04Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:62d99e85-79bf-48c5-9a63-c905d1f01652 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:33:04Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:62d99e85-79bf-48c5-9a63-c905d1f016522025-01-20T14:13:48ZTemperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North AfricaJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:62d99e85-79bf-48c5-9a63-c905d1f01652EnglishSymplectic ElementsVerlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften2024Abdel Ghany, JThe region of West Asia and North Africa has not only been termed a “hotspot” region for the adverse impact of climate change in light of extreme temperature increases. Several countries have also experienced protracted humanitarian crises and civil wars in the last two decades, such as those in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The vulnerability of these populations makes advancing our understanding of how climate change may impact migration patterns in the region a matter of urgency. This study examines whether extreme temperatures influence bilateral forced migration between countries within West Asia and North Africa through their potential to increase armed conflict. The findings suggest that extreme temperatures in two consecutive years, defined as the upper 10% of the country-specific annual mean temperature distribution, cumulatively increase the probability of armed conflict by 42.5% in the following year ( p = 0.07). Armed conflict is strongly associated with an increase in asylum flows, by 45.8 percentage points ( p = 0.00), and there is a weak indication that conflict mediates the relationship between extreme heat and asylum flows. This explorative study is the first to apply a regional displacement perspective to the climate-conflict-migration nexus in West Asia and North Africa. The results underline the importance of taking contextual factors into account in the analysis of environmental migration. |
| spellingShingle | Abdel Ghany, J Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title | Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title_full | Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title_fullStr | Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title_short | Temperatures, conflict and forced migration in West Asia and North Africa |
| title_sort | temperatures conflict and forced migration in west asia and north africa |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT abdelghanyj temperaturesconflictandforcedmigrationinwestasiaandnorthafrica |