Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India
In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additi...
| Príomhchruthaitheoirí: | , , , , , , , |
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| Formáid: | Journal article |
| Foilsithe / Cruthaithe: |
IOP Publishing
2019
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| _version_ | 1826275936652230656 |
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| author | Kumari, S Haustein, K Javid, H Burton, C Allen, MR Paltan, H Dadson, S Otto, FEL |
| author_facet | Kumari, S Haustein, K Javid, H Burton, C Allen, MR Paltan, H Dadson, S Otto, FEL |
| author_sort | Kumari, S |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T23:06:24Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:63f64033-51ec-4b35-b699-6148d126e918 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T23:06:24Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:63f64033-51ec-4b35-b699-6148d126e9182022-03-26T18:16:09ZReturn period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, IndiaJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:63f64033-51ec-4b35-b699-6148d126e918Symplectic Elements at OxfordIOP Publishing2019Kumari, SHaustein, KJavid, HBurton, CAllen, MRPaltan, HDadson, SOtto, FELIn June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust. |
| spellingShingle | Kumari, S Haustein, K Javid, H Burton, C Allen, MR Paltan, H Dadson, S Otto, FEL Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title | Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title_full | Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title_fullStr | Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title_short | Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India |
| title_sort | return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1 5 °c and 2 0 °c warming a case study for uttarakhand india |
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