Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards
Aim: The impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive gene...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley Open Access
2024
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| _version_ | 1811140134690619392 |
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| author | Azevedo, JAR Faurby, S Colli, GR Antonelli, A Werneck, FP |
| author_facet | Azevedo, JAR Faurby, S Colli, GR Antonelli, A Werneck, FP |
| author_sort | Azevedo, JAR |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Aim: The impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive genetic variation can spread across populations tracking changing climates, increasing the potential for evolutionary rescue. Here, our aim is to integrate genomic data, niche modelling and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and the potential for evolutionary rescue. Location: The megadiverse Amazonian rainforest. Methods: We use genome–environment association analyses to search for candidate loci under environmental selection, while accounting for neutral genetic variation in a widespread Amazonian whiptail lizard (Teiidae: Kentropyx calcarata). We then model the distribution of individuals with genotypes adapted to different climate conditions. We predict range shifts for each genotype in distinct future climate change scenarios by integrating this information with dispersal constraints based on predicted scenarios of forest cover across Amazonia. The predicted ranges of each genotype were then overlapped to infer the potential for evolutionary rescue. Results: We find that the potential for evolutionary rescue and, therefore, a smaller degree of range loss buffering extinction risk in the future is considerably high, provided that current forest cover is retained and climate change is not extreme. However, under extreme environmental change scenarios, range loss will be high in central and southern Amazonia, irrespective of the degree of deforestation. Main Conclusions: Our results suggest that protecting the Amazonian rainforest against further deforestation and mitigating climate change to moderate scenarios until 2070 could foster evolutionary rescue of ectothermic organisms. These actions could prevent substantial biodiversity loss in Amazonia, emphasizing the importance of understanding species adaptability in maintaining biodiversity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:17:09Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:6c12e4f7-6dfc-490e-be7b-65ddf01eeeb1 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:17:09Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Wiley Open Access |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:6c12e4f7-6dfc-490e-be7b-65ddf01eeeb12024-07-20T16:12:56ZDeforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizardsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:6c12e4f7-6dfc-490e-be7b-65ddf01eeeb1EnglishJisc Publications RouterWiley Open Access2024Azevedo, JARFaurby, SColli, GRAntonelli, AWerneck, FPAim: The impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive genetic variation can spread across populations tracking changing climates, increasing the potential for evolutionary rescue. Here, our aim is to integrate genomic data, niche modelling and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and the potential for evolutionary rescue. Location: The megadiverse Amazonian rainforest. Methods: We use genome–environment association analyses to search for candidate loci under environmental selection, while accounting for neutral genetic variation in a widespread Amazonian whiptail lizard (Teiidae: Kentropyx calcarata). We then model the distribution of individuals with genotypes adapted to different climate conditions. We predict range shifts for each genotype in distinct future climate change scenarios by integrating this information with dispersal constraints based on predicted scenarios of forest cover across Amazonia. The predicted ranges of each genotype were then overlapped to infer the potential for evolutionary rescue. Results: We find that the potential for evolutionary rescue and, therefore, a smaller degree of range loss buffering extinction risk in the future is considerably high, provided that current forest cover is retained and climate change is not extreme. However, under extreme environmental change scenarios, range loss will be high in central and southern Amazonia, irrespective of the degree of deforestation. Main Conclusions: Our results suggest that protecting the Amazonian rainforest against further deforestation and mitigating climate change to moderate scenarios until 2070 could foster evolutionary rescue of ectothermic organisms. These actions could prevent substantial biodiversity loss in Amazonia, emphasizing the importance of understanding species adaptability in maintaining biodiversity. |
| spellingShingle | Azevedo, JAR Faurby, S Colli, GR Antonelli, A Werneck, FP Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title | Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title_full | Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title_fullStr | Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title_short | Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards |
| title_sort | deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in amazonian lizards |
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