Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods
Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021
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| _version_ | 1797075502742110208 |
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| author | Slater, L Villarini, G Archfield, S Faulkner, D Lamb, R Khouakhi, A Yin, J |
| author_facet | Slater, L Villarini, G Archfield, S Faulkner, D Lamb, R Khouakhi, A Yin, J |
| author_sort | Slater, L |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T23:51:11Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:72a800a0-d5c1-467e-a291-f0069e4ee758 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T23:51:11Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:72a800a0-d5c1-467e-a291-f0069e4ee7582022-03-26T19:51:30ZGlobal changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floodsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_545buuid:72a800a0-d5c1-467e-a291-f0069e4ee758EnglishSymplectic ElementsWiley2021Slater, LVillarini, GArchfield, SFaulkner, DLamb, RKhouakhi, AYin, JConcepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. |
| spellingShingle | Slater, L Villarini, G Archfield, S Faulkner, D Lamb, R Khouakhi, A Yin, J Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title | Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title_full | Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title_fullStr | Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title_short | Global changes in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year river floods |
| title_sort | global changes in 20 year 50 year and 100 year river floods |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT slaterl globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT villarinig globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT archfields globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT faulknerd globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT lambr globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT khouakhia globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods AT yinj globalchangesin20year50yearand100yearriverfloods |