Assessing the robustness of zonal mean climate change detection

We assess the robustness of previous optimal detection and attribution studies considering zonal-mean temperatures. Principal results, which have consistently pointed towards a demonstrable anthropogenic influence on recently observed upper air temperatures, are confirmed. Importantly our detection...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Thorne, P, Jones, P, Osborn, T, Davies, T, Tett, S, Parker, D, Stott, P, Jones, G, Allen, M
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union 2002
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Description
Summary:We assess the robustness of previous optimal detection and attribution studies considering zonal-mean temperatures. Principal results, which have consistently pointed towards a demonstrable anthropogenic influence on recently observed upper air temperatures, are confirmed. Importantly our detection results are not critically dependent on the inclusion of stratospheric as well as tropospheric temperatures. We find that detection is dependent on input field pre-processing choices, and on the choice of detection algorithm. There are a number of cases where either no signals are detected, or results fail a consistency test.