Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology

Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of paramet...

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Hlavní autoři: Browning, AP, Warne, DJ, Burrage, K, Baker, RE, Simpson, MJ
Médium: Journal article
Jazyk:English
Vydáno: Royal Society 2020
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author Browning, AP
Warne, DJ
Burrage, K
Baker, RE
Simpson, MJ
author_facet Browning, AP
Warne, DJ
Burrage, K
Baker, RE
Simpson, MJ
author_sort Browning, AP
collection OXFORD
description Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.
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spelling oxford-uuid:7713eb4d-01ec-4b85-adf7-abd0a7fd38782022-03-26T20:20:53ZIdentifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biologyJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:7713eb4d-01ec-4b85-adf7-abd0a7fd3878EnglishSymplectic ElementsRoyal Society2020Browning, APWarne, DJBurrage, KBaker, RESimpson, MJMathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.
spellingShingle Browning, AP
Warne, DJ
Burrage, K
Baker, RE
Simpson, MJ
Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title_full Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title_fullStr Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title_full_unstemmed Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title_short Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
title_sort identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology
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AT warnedj identifiabilityanalysisforstochasticdifferentialequationmodelsinsystemsbiology
AT burragek identifiabilityanalysisforstochasticdifferentialequationmodelsinsystemsbiology
AT bakerre identifiabilityanalysisforstochasticdifferentialequationmodelsinsystemsbiology
AT simpsonmj identifiabilityanalysisforstochasticdifferentialequationmodelsinsystemsbiology