Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
We assess for the first time the impact of in-situ ocean observations on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal forecasts of both ocean and atmospheric conditions. A series of coupled reforecasts have been conducted for the period 1993-2015, in which different sets o...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media
2024
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| _version_ | 1811140140445204480 |
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| author | Balan-Sarojini, B Balmaseda, MA Vitart, F Roberts, CD Zuo, H Tietsche, S Mayer, M |
| author_facet | Balan-Sarojini, B Balmaseda, MA Vitart, F Roberts, CD Zuo, H Tietsche, S Mayer, M |
| author_sort | Balan-Sarojini, B |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | We assess for the first time the impact of in-situ ocean observations on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal forecasts of both ocean and atmospheric conditions. A series of coupled reforecasts have been conducted for the period 1993-2015, in which different sets of ocean observations were withdrawn in the production of the ocean initial conditions. Removal of all ocean in-situ observations in the initial conditions leads to significant degradation in the forecasts of ocean surface and subsurface mean state at lead times from week 1 to week 4. The negative impact is predominantly caused by the removal of the Argo observing system in recent decades. Changes in the mean state of atmospheric variables are comparatively small but significant in the forecasts of lower and upper atmospheric circulation over large regions. Our results highlight the value of continuous, real-time in-situ observations of the surface and subsurface ocean for coupled forecasts in the sub-seasonal range. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:17:15Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:781543c8-8c4e-4311-9542-bba87924d23e |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:17:15Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:781543c8-8c4e-4311-9542-bba87924d23e2024-07-23T19:35:31ZImpact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecastsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:781543c8-8c4e-4311-9542-bba87924d23eEnglishJisc Publications RouterFrontiers Media2024Balan-Sarojini, BBalmaseda, MAVitart, FRoberts, CDZuo, HTietsche, SMayer, MWe assess for the first time the impact of in-situ ocean observations on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub-seasonal forecasts of both ocean and atmospheric conditions. A series of coupled reforecasts have been conducted for the period 1993-2015, in which different sets of ocean observations were withdrawn in the production of the ocean initial conditions. Removal of all ocean in-situ observations in the initial conditions leads to significant degradation in the forecasts of ocean surface and subsurface mean state at lead times from week 1 to week 4. The negative impact is predominantly caused by the removal of the Argo observing system in recent decades. Changes in the mean state of atmospheric variables are comparatively small but significant in the forecasts of lower and upper atmospheric circulation over large regions. Our results highlight the value of continuous, real-time in-situ observations of the surface and subsurface ocean for coupled forecasts in the sub-seasonal range. |
| spellingShingle | Balan-Sarojini, B Balmaseda, MA Vitart, F Roberts, CD Zuo, H Tietsche, S Mayer, M Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title | Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title_full | Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title_short | Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts |
| title_sort | impact of ocean in situ observations on ecmwf sub seasonal forecasts |
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