The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study
Much of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 l...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cell Press
2023
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| _version_ | 1811139722407313408 |
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| author | Cohen, JA Stuart, RM Panovska-Griffiths, J Mudimu, E Abeysuriya, RG Kerr, CC Famulare, M Klein, DJ |
| author_facet | Cohen, JA Stuart, RM Panovska-Griffiths, J Mudimu, E Abeysuriya, RG Kerr, CC Famulare, M Klein, DJ |
| author_sort | Cohen, JA |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Much of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape. In this study, we simulate a South African population and demonstrate how population-level vaccine effectiveness and efficiency changed over the course of the first 2 years of the pandemic. We then introduce three hypothetical variants and evaluate the impact of vaccines with different properties. We find that variant-chasing vaccines have a narrow window of dominating pre-existing vaccines but that a variant-chasing vaccine strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Next-generation vaccines might be able to overcome uncertainty in pace and degree of viral evolution. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:10:36Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:7872824d-266b-4299-901d-3dd1cebc358c |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:10:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | Cell Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:7872824d-266b-4299-901d-3dd1cebc358c2024-06-18T14:49:34ZThe changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling studyJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:7872824d-266b-4299-901d-3dd1cebc358cEnglishSymplectic ElementsCell Press2023Cohen, JAStuart, RMPanovska-Griffiths, JMudimu, EAbeysuriya, RGKerr, CCFamulare, MKlein, DJMuch of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape. In this study, we simulate a South African population and demonstrate how population-level vaccine effectiveness and efficiency changed over the course of the first 2 years of the pandemic. We then introduce three hypothetical variants and evaluate the impact of vaccines with different properties. We find that variant-chasing vaccines have a narrow window of dominating pre-existing vaccines but that a variant-chasing vaccine strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Next-generation vaccines might be able to overcome uncertainty in pace and degree of viral evolution. |
| spellingShingle | Cohen, JA Stuart, RM Panovska-Griffiths, J Mudimu, E Abeysuriya, RG Kerr, CC Famulare, M Klein, DJ The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title | The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title_full | The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title_fullStr | The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title_short | The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study |
| title_sort | changing health impact of vaccines in the covid 19 pandemic a modeling study |
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