Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality.
BACKGROUND: Quantifying the potential health benefits of improvements in the nutritional quality of the average diet of a population would provide evidence for resource allocation between population-level interventions aimed at reducing chronic disease. METHODS: A model was built linking consumptio...
| Hoofdauteurs: | , , , , |
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| Formaat: | Journal article |
| Taal: | English |
| Gepubliceerd in: |
2012
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| _version_ | 1826280133036605440 |
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| author | Scarborough, P Nnoaham, K Clarke, D Capewell, S Rayner, M |
| author_facet | Scarborough, P Nnoaham, K Clarke, D Capewell, S Rayner, M |
| author_sort | Scarborough, P |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | BACKGROUND: Quantifying the potential health benefits of improvements in the nutritional quality of the average diet of a population would provide evidence for resource allocation between population-level interventions aimed at reducing chronic disease. METHODS: A model was built linking consumption of food components with biological risk factors (blood pressure, serum cholesterol and obesity) and subsequent mortality from coronary heart disease, stroke and cancer. Meta-analyses of individual-level studies that quantified the RR of increased consumption/increased risk factor level on disease outcomes were used to build the model. The sensitivity of the model to the results from the meta-analyses was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. Country-specific estimates of current nutrient intake compared against dietary recommendations for the UK were used to demonstrate the model. RESULTS: Approximately 33 000 deaths per year would be avoided if UK dietary recommendations were met. The modelled reduction in deaths for coronary heart disease was 20 800 (95% credible interval 17 845-24 069), for stroke 5876 (3856-7364) and for cancer 6481 (4487-8353). Over 15 000 of the avoided deaths would be due to increased consumption of fruit and vegetables. CONCLUSIONS: The developed model estimates the impact of population-level dietary changes and is robust. Achieving UK dietary recommendations for fruit and vegetable consumption (five portions a day) would result in substantial health benefits-equivalent benefits would be achieved if salt intakes were lowered to 3.5 g per day or saturated fat intakes were lowered to 3% of total energy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T00:09:08Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:789b40e4-0282-448f-91fc-8e5ba9d91c93 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T00:09:08Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:789b40e4-0282-448f-91fc-8e5ba9d91c932022-03-26T20:31:47ZModelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality.Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:789b40e4-0282-448f-91fc-8e5ba9d91c93EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2012Scarborough, PNnoaham, KClarke, DCapewell, SRayner, M BACKGROUND: Quantifying the potential health benefits of improvements in the nutritional quality of the average diet of a population would provide evidence for resource allocation between population-level interventions aimed at reducing chronic disease. METHODS: A model was built linking consumption of food components with biological risk factors (blood pressure, serum cholesterol and obesity) and subsequent mortality from coronary heart disease, stroke and cancer. Meta-analyses of individual-level studies that quantified the RR of increased consumption/increased risk factor level on disease outcomes were used to build the model. The sensitivity of the model to the results from the meta-analyses was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. Country-specific estimates of current nutrient intake compared against dietary recommendations for the UK were used to demonstrate the model. RESULTS: Approximately 33 000 deaths per year would be avoided if UK dietary recommendations were met. The modelled reduction in deaths for coronary heart disease was 20 800 (95% credible interval 17 845-24 069), for stroke 5876 (3856-7364) and for cancer 6481 (4487-8353). Over 15 000 of the avoided deaths would be due to increased consumption of fruit and vegetables. CONCLUSIONS: The developed model estimates the impact of population-level dietary changes and is robust. Achieving UK dietary recommendations for fruit and vegetable consumption (five portions a day) would result in substantial health benefits-equivalent benefits would be achieved if salt intakes were lowered to 3.5 g per day or saturated fat intakes were lowered to 3% of total energy. |
| spellingShingle | Scarborough, P Nnoaham, K Clarke, D Capewell, S Rayner, M Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title | Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title_full | Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title_short | Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. |
| title_sort | modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality |
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