A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference
<p>Recent episodes of foreign meddling into elections in the past decade have led observers asking whether democracies could uphold their electoral sovereignty in the 21st Century. Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of democratic regimes, and such encroachment on a Nation’ sovereignty...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1811139935998050304 |
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| author | Laudrain, A |
| author2 | Kello, L |
| author_facet | Kello, L Laudrain, A |
| author_sort | Laudrain, A |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <p>Recent episodes of foreign meddling into elections in the past decade have led observers asking whether democracies could uphold their electoral sovereignty in the 21st Century. Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of democratic regimes, and such encroachment on a Nation’ sovereignty and self-determination would be expected to trigger a strong response from the affected states. Yet, what we have witnessed in terms of foreign policy response ranges from unspecified threats and diplomatic sanctions to total inaction. How can we explain this variation?</p>
<p>In this thesis, I make four principal contributions. From the observation that connectivity and social media are increasing the disruptive potential of foreign interference, I introduce the concept of cyber-enabled foreign electoral interference (CYFI, /saɪ-faɪ/). Theoretically, I argue that neo-classical realism provides the best tools and assumptions to understand the puzzle. This leads me to hypothesise that if states’ response to CYFI varies within a spectrum of under-response, it is because their threat perception filters the systemic stimuli of power imbalance, and their willingness to respond to the external threat is constrained by domestic politics, with more or less strength. To test this theory, I adopt a methodological synergy design. On the one hand, I probe the internal validity of the theory with a causal narrative, combined with an internal comparison to test how variation in the IIV influences the DV. On the other hand, I probe external validity with cross-case analysis in the form of a multistage Millian method, generating evidence akin to dataset observations. I find that foreign policy executives face what I have coined “the lesser evil dilemma”, leading them to prioritise national cohesion over addressing the foreign threat. I also identify trends in how leaders, parties, or governments react to the interference, based on their ideological alignment and interests. This has important policy implications and opens avenues of further research, in cyber IR and beyond.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:14:00Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oxford-uuid:78ab23dd-5e54-4df1-a3f8-7d1769875cec |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:14:00Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:78ab23dd-5e54-4df1-a3f8-7d1769875cec2024-07-12T13:14:32ZA lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interferenceThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06uuid:78ab23dd-5e54-4df1-a3f8-7d1769875cecElection securityForeign interference in electionsForeign policyEnglishHyrax Deposit2024Laudrain, AKello, L<p>Recent episodes of foreign meddling into elections in the past decade have led observers asking whether democracies could uphold their electoral sovereignty in the 21st Century. Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of democratic regimes, and such encroachment on a Nation’ sovereignty and self-determination would be expected to trigger a strong response from the affected states. Yet, what we have witnessed in terms of foreign policy response ranges from unspecified threats and diplomatic sanctions to total inaction. How can we explain this variation?</p> <p>In this thesis, I make four principal contributions. From the observation that connectivity and social media are increasing the disruptive potential of foreign interference, I introduce the concept of cyber-enabled foreign electoral interference (CYFI, /saɪ-faɪ/). Theoretically, I argue that neo-classical realism provides the best tools and assumptions to understand the puzzle. This leads me to hypothesise that if states’ response to CYFI varies within a spectrum of under-response, it is because their threat perception filters the systemic stimuli of power imbalance, and their willingness to respond to the external threat is constrained by domestic politics, with more or less strength. To test this theory, I adopt a methodological synergy design. On the one hand, I probe the internal validity of the theory with a causal narrative, combined with an internal comparison to test how variation in the IIV influences the DV. On the other hand, I probe external validity with cross-case analysis in the form of a multistage Millian method, generating evidence akin to dataset observations. I find that foreign policy executives face what I have coined “the lesser evil dilemma”, leading them to prioritise national cohesion over addressing the foreign threat. I also identify trends in how leaders, parties, or governments react to the interference, based on their ideological alignment and interests. This has important policy implications and opens avenues of further research, in cyber IR and beyond.</p> |
| spellingShingle | Election security Foreign interference in elections Foreign policy Laudrain, A A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title | A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title_full | A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title_fullStr | A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title_full_unstemmed | A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title_short | A lesser evil: why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| title_sort | lesser evil why democracies fail to push back against cyber election interference |
| topic | Election security Foreign interference in elections Foreign policy |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laudraina alesserevilwhydemocraciesfailtopushbackagainstcyberelectioninterference AT laudraina lesserevilwhydemocraciesfailtopushbackagainstcyberelectioninterference |