Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts
When rebel groups operate from bases in neighbouring countries, conflict dynamics are expected to change. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how the governments in charge of those territories influence the matter. Providing a new framework for the analysis of transnational conflict, this thesis...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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2024
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| _version_ | 1811140452525539328 |
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| author | Schram, J |
| author2 | Ruggeri, A |
| author_facet | Ruggeri, A Schram, J |
| author_sort | Schram, J |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | When rebel groups operate from bases in neighbouring countries, conflict dynamics are expected to change. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how the governments in charge of those territories influence the matter. Providing a new framework for the analysis of transnational conflict, this thesis advances three claims. First, insurgents’ cross-border operations are affected by the <em>host policies</em> of neighbouring governments. Second, those policies shift with <em>sanctuary politics</em>, a bargaining process separate from the conflict itself. Third, because sanctuaries influence rebel tactics and constrain counterinsurgents, <em>host-policy shifts</em> transform the violence and duration of transnational conflicts. The thesis presents three articles on the causes and effects of host-policy shifts, drawing upon original event data for a global sample of transnational rebel groups in the 1989-2020 period. The first article, "Sanctuary Lost," explores the timing and effectiveness of host states’ efforts to curb rebel operations. It finds that, while diplomatic pressure explains official commitments, domestic concerns explain actual crackdowns. The second article, "Bombing For Resurrection," examines how sanctuary crackdowns affect rebel tactics. It reveals an unintended shadow side of state alignment: terror attacks perpetrated far away from the border. The third article, "Encirclement Across Borders," tackles the puzzle of why transnational conflicts tend to be long-lasting. It uncovers how borders enable insurgents to break encirclement, a mechanism which begins and ends with failures and breakthroughs of international synchronisation. My findings are corroborated with quantitative tests that alleviate confounding. To clarify the causal mechanisms, these are coupled with diagnostic case studies and interview data from West Africa. The thesis has clear implications for the literature on transnational civil wars, identifying new sources of change. It also proposes novel explanations to the study of international security cooperation and terrorist tactics. In sanctuary politics, diplomacy and violence are closely intertwined. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:22:12Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oxford-uuid:792037a8-1b6a-4b9b-b82f-777ca7a96e9b |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:22:12Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:792037a8-1b6a-4b9b-b82f-777ca7a96e9b2024-08-19T09:59:58ZSanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflictsThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06uuid:792037a8-1b6a-4b9b-b82f-777ca7a96e9bPeaceWarIntergroup relationsPolitics and warEnglishHyrax Deposit2024Schram, JRuggeri, AWhen rebel groups operate from bases in neighbouring countries, conflict dynamics are expected to change. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how the governments in charge of those territories influence the matter. Providing a new framework for the analysis of transnational conflict, this thesis advances three claims. First, insurgents’ cross-border operations are affected by the <em>host policies</em> of neighbouring governments. Second, those policies shift with <em>sanctuary politics</em>, a bargaining process separate from the conflict itself. Third, because sanctuaries influence rebel tactics and constrain counterinsurgents, <em>host-policy shifts</em> transform the violence and duration of transnational conflicts. The thesis presents three articles on the causes and effects of host-policy shifts, drawing upon original event data for a global sample of transnational rebel groups in the 1989-2020 period. The first article, "Sanctuary Lost," explores the timing and effectiveness of host states’ efforts to curb rebel operations. It finds that, while diplomatic pressure explains official commitments, domestic concerns explain actual crackdowns. The second article, "Bombing For Resurrection," examines how sanctuary crackdowns affect rebel tactics. It reveals an unintended shadow side of state alignment: terror attacks perpetrated far away from the border. The third article, "Encirclement Across Borders," tackles the puzzle of why transnational conflicts tend to be long-lasting. It uncovers how borders enable insurgents to break encirclement, a mechanism which begins and ends with failures and breakthroughs of international synchronisation. My findings are corroborated with quantitative tests that alleviate confounding. To clarify the causal mechanisms, these are coupled with diagnostic case studies and interview data from West Africa. The thesis has clear implications for the literature on transnational civil wars, identifying new sources of change. It also proposes novel explanations to the study of international security cooperation and terrorist tactics. In sanctuary politics, diplomacy and violence are closely intertwined. |
| spellingShingle | Peace War Intergroup relations Politics and war Schram, J Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title | Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title_full | Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title_fullStr | Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title_short | Sanctuary politics: diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| title_sort | sanctuary politics diplomacy and violence in transnational conflicts |
| topic | Peace War Intergroup relations Politics and war |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT schramj sanctuarypoliticsdiplomacyandviolenceintransnationalconflicts |