| Summary: | Growth, structural change and evolution is endemic in any economy, and yet we require well-specified, constant parameter econometric models of macro phenomena to understand economies, forecast and undertake policy analysis. This article draws on recent developments in econometric modelling, including general-to-specific modelling, non-linearity testing and modelling, and outlier detection using indicator saturation, to propose a methodology in which constant parameter models can be built over long periods, yielding substantial insights into macroeconomic behaviour over a century and a half.
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