| الملخص: | Excess mortality is a more robust measure than the counts of COVID-19 deaths typically used in epidemiological
and spatial studies. Measurement issues around excess mortality, considering data quality and comparability both
internationally and within the US, are surveyed. This paper is the first state-level spatial analysis of cumulative
excess mortality for the US in the first full year of the pandemic. There is strong evidence that states with higher
Democrat vote shares experienced lower excess mortality (consistent with county-level studies of COVID-19
deaths and partisanship). Important demographic and socio-economic controls from a broad set tested were racial
composition, age structure, population density, poverty, income, temperature, timing of arrival of the pandemic
and political allegiance. Interaction effects suggest the Democrat vote share effect of reducing mortality was even
greater in states where the pandemic arrived early. Omitting political allegiance leads to a significant
underestimation of the mortality disparities for minority populations.
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