Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

Dettagli Bibliografici
Autori principali:	Christensen, H, Moroz, I, Palmer, T
Natura:	Journal article
Pubblicazione:	2014

Documenti analoghi

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
di: Weisheimer, A, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
di: Weisheimer, A, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts
di: Doblas-Reyes, F, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2009)

Blocking Predictability in Operational Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts
di: Matsueda, M
Pubblicazione: (2009)

Spatiotemporal Behavior of the TIGGE Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts
di: Kipling, Z, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Significance of changes in medium-range forecast scores
di: Alan J. Geer
Pubblicazione: (2016-09-01)

Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium‐range forecasts
di: Parker, TJ, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2018)

THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON AN ENSEMBLE OF EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS
di: Owen, J, et al.
Pubblicazione: (1987)

A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system
di: V. Thiemig, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2015-08-01)

Postprocessing of Medium Range Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts Making Use of Reforecasts
di: Joris Van den Bergh, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2016-05-01)

Ensemble forecasting
di: Leutbecher, M, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2008)

Extreme rainfall prediction using the European centre for medium-range weather forecasts ensemble prediction system
di: Petroliagis, T, et al.
Pubblicazione: (1996)

Downscaling medium-range ensemble forecasts using a neural network approach
di: M. Ohba, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2015-06-01)

EXPERIMENTAL MONTHLY LONG-RANGE FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED-KINGDOM .2. A REAL-TIME LONG-RANGE FORECAST BY AN ENSEMBLE OF NUMERICAL INTEGRATIONS
di: Murphy, J, et al.
Pubblicazione: (1986)

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts
di: Doblas-Reyes, F, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2006)

Novel multivariate quantile mapping methods for ensemble post-processing of medium-range forecasts
di: Kirien Whan, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2021-06-01)

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts
di: Weisheimer, A, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2005)

EXTENDED-RANGE PREDICTIONS WITH ECMWF MODELS - TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE FORECASTING
di: Brankovic, C, et al.
Pubblicazione: (1990)

Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS
di: Sheng-Chi Yang, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2014-01-01)

Probabilistic medium-range forecasts of extreme heat events over East Asia based on a global ensemble forecasting system
di: Sunlae Tak, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2024-09-01)

Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics
di: MacLeod, D, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2018)

Uncertainty and scale interactions in ocean ensembles: from seasonal forecasts to multi-decadal climate predictions
di: Zanna, L, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2018)

Proper scoring rules for multivariate probabilistic forecasts based on aggregation and transformation
di: R. Pic, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2025-03-01)

Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting
di: A. Thiboult, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2016-05-01)

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty
di: Juricke, S, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2018)

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction
di: Y. Xuan, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2009-03-01)

Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
di: J. C. Bennett, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2017-11-01)

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination
di: Doblas-Reyes, F, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2005)

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
di: Hagedorn, R, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2005)

THE EUROPEAN-CENTER-FOR-MEDIUM-RANGE-WEATHER-FORECASTS (ECMWF) PROGRAM ON EXTENDED-RANGE PREDICTION
di: Palmer, T, et al.
Pubblicazione: (1990)

Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE
di: Matsueda, M, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE
di: Matsueda, M, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Medium-range forecasting of oceanic eddy trajectory
di: Xiaoyan Chen, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2024-12-01)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
di: Doblas-Reyes, F, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
di: Doblas-Reyes, F, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2011)

Early warning products for severe weather events derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts
di: Matsueda, M, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2014)

Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System
di: G. Matthews, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2022-06-01)

Analogue Ensemble Averaging Method for Bias Correction of 2-m Temperature of the Medium-Range Forecasts in China
di: Yingying Hu, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2022-12-01)

Medium-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation and Ramps in Japan Based on a Hybrid Ensemble
di: Masamichi Ohba, et al.
Pubblicazione: (2018-10-01)

Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate
di: Palmer, T
Pubblicazione: (2000)