The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure.
To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, the authors analyze the sources of misprediction. This reveals that an ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast-period events, not determinable from in-sample information. The primary causes are unmodeled shifts...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Blackwell Publishing
1997
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