Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events
By using rank-order statistics, it is possible to predict the likely scale of future "extreme" volcanic events (eruptions larger than a given threshold size, or repose periods longer than a given time) on both a local and global scale. When ranked by diminishing size, the largest and most...
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| Format: | Journal article |
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1998
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| _version_ | 1797080819420889088 |
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| author | Pyle, D |
| author_facet | Pyle, D |
| author_sort | Pyle, D |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | By using rank-order statistics, it is possible to predict the likely scale of future "extreme" volcanic events (eruptions larger than a given threshold size, or repose periods longer than a given time) on both a local and global scale. When ranked by diminishing size, the largest and most devastating volcanic eruptions in terms of volume, or consequent fatalities, can be described by power-law functions. In turn, this approach permits projection of, for example, (1) the likely size of the next volcanic eruption larger than the A.D. 1815 eruption of Tambora (∼90 km3 of magma); (2) the size of the next eruption of the Taupo volcano, New Zealand, that is larger than the eruption of A.D. 186 (∼82 km3 of tephra); and (3) the likely duration of the current repose period of the Taupo volcano (4000 ± 1200 years). This approach can also be employed on shorter time scales, for example to provide quantitative criteria to assess when a period of activity has ceased. With the establishment of procedures for making projections such as these, volcano hazard assessment may be placed onto a more rigorous and quantitative basis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:05:40Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:8b3fa4d6-bc76-4a26-9e4f-37631c5f65f0 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:05:40Z |
| publishDate | 1998 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:8b3fa4d6-bc76-4a26-9e4f-37631c5f65f02022-03-26T22:36:51ZForecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic eventsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:8b3fa4d6-bc76-4a26-9e4f-37631c5f65f0Symplectic Elements at Oxford1998Pyle, DBy using rank-order statistics, it is possible to predict the likely scale of future "extreme" volcanic events (eruptions larger than a given threshold size, or repose periods longer than a given time) on both a local and global scale. When ranked by diminishing size, the largest and most devastating volcanic eruptions in terms of volume, or consequent fatalities, can be described by power-law functions. In turn, this approach permits projection of, for example, (1) the likely size of the next volcanic eruption larger than the A.D. 1815 eruption of Tambora (∼90 km3 of magma); (2) the size of the next eruption of the Taupo volcano, New Zealand, that is larger than the eruption of A.D. 186 (∼82 km3 of tephra); and (3) the likely duration of the current repose period of the Taupo volcano (4000 ± 1200 years). This approach can also be employed on shorter time scales, for example to provide quantitative criteria to assess when a period of activity has ceased. With the establishment of procedures for making projections such as these, volcano hazard assessment may be placed onto a more rigorous and quantitative basis. |
| spellingShingle | Pyle, D Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title | Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title_full | Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title_short | Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| title_sort | forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pyled forecastingsizesandreposetimesoffutureextremevolcanicevents |