The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study.
OBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiogra...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
|
| _version_ | 1826285279150866432 |
|---|---|
| author | Leyland, K Hart, D Javaid, M Judge, A Kiran, A Soni, A Goulston, L Cooper, C Spector, T Arden, N |
| author_facet | Leyland, K Hart, D Javaid, M Judge, A Kiran, A Soni, A Goulston, L Cooper, C Spector, T Arden, N |
| author_sort | Leyland, K |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | OBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA. RESULTS: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4). CONCLUSION: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:26:27Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:9223f592-52a0-4a65-bf1e-f10aed3f6229 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:26:27Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:9223f592-52a0-4a65-bf1e-f10aed3f62292022-03-26T23:23:28ZThe natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study.Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:9223f592-52a0-4a65-bf1e-f10aed3f6229EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2012Leyland, KHart, DJavaid, MJudge, AKiran, ASoni, AGoulston, LCooper, CSpector, TArden, NOBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA. RESULTS: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4). CONCLUSION: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA. |
| spellingShingle | Leyland, K Hart, D Javaid, M Judge, A Kiran, A Soni, A Goulston, L Cooper, C Spector, T Arden, N The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title | The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title_full | The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title_fullStr | The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title_full_unstemmed | The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title_short | The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study. |
| title_sort | natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis a fourteen year population based cohort study |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leylandk thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT hartd thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT javaidm thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT judgea thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT kirana thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT sonia thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT goulstonl thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT cooperc thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT spectort thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT ardenn thenaturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT leylandk naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT hartd naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT javaidm naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT judgea naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT kirana naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT sonia naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT goulstonl naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT cooperc naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT spectort naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy AT ardenn naturalhistoryofradiographickneeosteoarthritisafourteenyearpopulationbasedcohortstudy |