Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability?
The magnitude of observed multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multi-decadal NAO variability is more strongly associated with...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2018
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| _version_ | 1797082818802614272 |
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| author | Woollings, T Bracegirdle, T Lu, H Eade, R |
| author_facet | Woollings, T Bracegirdle, T Lu, H Eade, R |
| author_sort | Woollings, T |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The magnitude of observed multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multi-decadal NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the CMIP5 models. Our results show that the observed peak in multi-decadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model-simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low-frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multi-decadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid-19th century may be specific to this period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:33:14Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:944a2013-f342-47c4-99a3-1a9c9a015b23 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T01:33:14Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:944a2013-f342-47c4-99a3-1a9c9a015b232022-03-26T23:38:21ZDo CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability?Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:944a2013-f342-47c4-99a3-1a9c9a015b23Symplectic Elements at OxfordJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.2018Woollings, TBracegirdle, TLu, HEade, RThe magnitude of observed multi-decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multi-decadal NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the CMIP5 models. Our results show that the observed peak in multi-decadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model-simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low-frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multi-decadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid-19th century may be specific to this period. |
| spellingShingle | Woollings, T Bracegirdle, T Lu, H Eade, R Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title | Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title_full | Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title_fullStr | Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title_short | Do CMIP5 models reproduce observed low-frequency North Atlantic jet variability? |
| title_sort | do cmip5 models reproduce observed low frequency north atlantic jet variability |
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