Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events
Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. In this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR...
| Những tác giả chính: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Định dạng: | Journal article |
| Ngôn ngữ: | English |
| Được phát hành: |
American Geophysical Union
2025
|
| _version_ | 1826317423821717504 |
|---|---|
| author | Gao, Y Guo, X Lu, J Woollings, T Chen, D Guo, X Wu, L |
| author_facet | Gao, Y Guo, X Lu, J Woollings, T Chen, D Guo, X Wu, L |
| author_sort | Gao, Y |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. In this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atmosphere and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:39:50Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:97755c8c-30c5-48ab-880f-2b23f6de9fe6 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-19T04:39:50Z |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:97755c8c-30c5-48ab-880f-2b23f6de9fe62025-02-13T10:20:09ZEnhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather eventsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:97755c8c-30c5-48ab-880f-2b23f6de9fe6EnglishSymplectic ElementsAmerican Geophysical Union2025Gao, YGuo, XLu, JWoollings, TChen, DGuo, XWu, LAtmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. In this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atmosphere and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future. |
| spellingShingle | Gao, Y Guo, X Lu, J Woollings, T Chen, D Guo, X Wu, L Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title | Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title_full | Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title_fullStr | Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title_short | Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high-resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| title_sort | enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high resolution earth system model projected changes and implications for extreme weather events |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gaoy enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT guox enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT luj enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT woollingst enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT chend enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT guox enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents AT wul enhancedsimulationofatmosphericblockinginahighresolutionearthsystemmodelprojectedchangesandimplicationsforextremeweatherevents |