| Summary: | <p><strong>Aims:</strong> In people with heart failure (HF), a high body mass index (BMI) has been linked with better outcomes (‘obesity paradox’), but there is limited evidence in community populations across long-term follow-up. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF in a large primary care cohort.</p>
<p><strong>Methods:</strong> We included patients with incident HF aged ≥45 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2000-2017). We used Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression, and penalised splines methods to assess the association of pre-diagnostic BMI, based on WHO classification, with all-cause mortality.</p>
<p><strong>Results:</strong> There were 47,531 participants with HF (median age 78.0 years (IQR 70-84), 45.8% female, 79.0% white ethnicity, median BMI 27.1 (IQR 23.9-31.0)) and 25,013 (52.6%) died during follow-up. Compared to healthy weight, people with overweight (HR 0.78, 95%CI 0.75-0.81, risk difference (RD) -4.1%), obesity class I (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.73-0.80, RD -4.5%) and class II (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.71-0.81, RD -4.5%) were at decreased risk of death, whereas people with underweight were at increased risk (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.45-1.75, RD 11.2%). In those underweight, this risk was greater among men than women (p-value for interaction = 0.02). Class III obesity was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to overweight (HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.17-1.29).</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The U-shaped relationship between BMI and long-term all-cause mortality suggests a personalised approach to identifying optimal weight may be needed for patients with HF in primary care. Underweight people have the poorest prognosis and should be recognised as high-risk.</p>
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