Comparison of performances between risk scores for predicting mortality at 30 days in patients with community acquired pneumonia

Background: Risk scores facilitate the assessment of mortality risk in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Despite their utilities, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the various RS simultaneously. This study aims to evaluate and compare multiple risk scores reported in the lite...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Tuta-Quintero, E, Goyes, ARB, Guerrón-Gómez, G, Martínez, MC, Torres, D, Schloss, C, Camacho, J, Bonilla, G, Cepeda, D, Romero, P, Fuentes, Y, Garcia, E, Acosta, D, Rodríguez, S, Alvarez, D, Reyes, LF
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: BioMed Central 2024
Description
Summary:Background: Risk scores facilitate the assessment of mortality risk in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Despite their utilities, there is a scarcity of evidence comparing the various RS simultaneously. This study aims to evaluate and compare multiple risk scores reported in the literature for predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients with CAP. Methods: A retrospective cohort study on patients diagnosed with CAP was conducted across two hospitals in Colombia. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-curves) were calculated for the outcome of survival or death at 30 days using the scores obtained for each of the analyzed questionnaires. Results: A total of 7454 potentially eligible patients were included, with 4350 in the final analysis, of whom 15.2% (662/4350) died within 30 days. The average age was 65.4 years (SD: 21.31), and 59.5% (2563/4350) were male. Chronic kidney disease was 3.7% (9.2% vs. 5.5%; p < 0.001) (OR: 1.85) higher in subjects who died compared to those who survived. Among the patients who died, 33.2% (220/662) presented septic shock compared to 7.3% (271/3688) of the patients who survived (p < 0.001). The best performances at 30 days were shown by the following scores: PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65 scores with the areas under ROC-curves of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.8–0.85), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66–0.83), and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71–0.76), respectively. The RS with the lowest performance was SIRS with the area under ROC-curve of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.51–0.56). Conclusion: The PSI, SMART-COP and CURB 65, demonstrated the best diagnostic performances for predicting 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with CAP. The burden of comorbidities and complications associated with CAP was higher in patients who died.