From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism
<p>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) shaped the preferences and available choices of negotiators and stakeholders during its renegotiation in 2017-19, leading to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This thesis first examines the reasons behind the US demand for ins...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2023
|
| Subjects: |
| _version_ | 1811139946922115072 |
|---|---|
| author | Arnaud, L |
| author2 | Fu, X |
| author_facet | Fu, X Arnaud, L |
| author_sort | Arnaud, L |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <p>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) shaped the preferences and available choices of negotiators and stakeholders during its renegotiation in 2017-19, leading to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This thesis first examines the reasons behind the US demand for institutional change. Drawing on structuralist economics, it develops a typology of US trade policies since WWII based on the global South's access to the US market and policy space. US trade policy evolved from ‘magnanimous’ (1944-70) to ‘competitive’ (1971-1990) to ‘restraining’ (1991-2016) as the US reacted to disruptions caused by import competition. Since 2017, US trade policy globally has shifted to ‘power-based’ as a reaction to the restraining policy, symbolised by the WTO and NAFTA, which encouraged offshoring by stabilising access to the US market and restricting trading partners’ policy space. Paradoxically, USMCA largely preserved US restraining policy regionally, although uncertainty is institutionalised by the inclusion of review periods and a sunset clause.</p>
<p>To understand the continuity between NAFTA and USMCA despite the Trump administration’s radical negotiating objectives, this thesis then analyses the process of institutional change, drawing on over one hundred interviews. Historical institutionalism is integrated into the two-level game framework to understand the role of increasing returns and veto power in a trade renegotiation. Those two path dependence mechanisms were the main reason for US policy continuity as labour unions and members of Congress historically opposed to NAFTA defended the agreement against President Trump’s disruptive strategy, while business groups lobbied to preserve the status quo. In Mexico, path dependence also constrained Mexican President López Obrador to endorse USMCA, despite his long-standing criticism of NAFTA and efforts to regain policy space. He instead used USMCA to lock in his ambitious labour reforms, just as NAFTA was used in the 1990s to lock in trade liberalisation.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:14:10Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oxford-uuid:a2e39251-af80-4e1c-bf7e-3fba171ae284 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-25T04:14:10Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:a2e39251-af80-4e1c-bf7e-3fba171ae2842024-07-10T12:34:34ZFrom NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionismThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06uuid:a2e39251-af80-4e1c-bf7e-3fba171ae284international political economyinternational developmentinternational relationsInternational tradeEnglishHyrax Deposit2023Arnaud, LFu, XSanchez-Ancochea, D<p>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) shaped the preferences and available choices of negotiators and stakeholders during its renegotiation in 2017-19, leading to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This thesis first examines the reasons behind the US demand for institutional change. Drawing on structuralist economics, it develops a typology of US trade policies since WWII based on the global South's access to the US market and policy space. US trade policy evolved from ‘magnanimous’ (1944-70) to ‘competitive’ (1971-1990) to ‘restraining’ (1991-2016) as the US reacted to disruptions caused by import competition. Since 2017, US trade policy globally has shifted to ‘power-based’ as a reaction to the restraining policy, symbolised by the WTO and NAFTA, which encouraged offshoring by stabilising access to the US market and restricting trading partners’ policy space. Paradoxically, USMCA largely preserved US restraining policy regionally, although uncertainty is institutionalised by the inclusion of review periods and a sunset clause.</p> <p>To understand the continuity between NAFTA and USMCA despite the Trump administration’s radical negotiating objectives, this thesis then analyses the process of institutional change, drawing on over one hundred interviews. Historical institutionalism is integrated into the two-level game framework to understand the role of increasing returns and veto power in a trade renegotiation. Those two path dependence mechanisms were the main reason for US policy continuity as labour unions and members of Congress historically opposed to NAFTA defended the agreement against President Trump’s disruptive strategy, while business groups lobbied to preserve the status quo. In Mexico, path dependence also constrained Mexican President López Obrador to endorse USMCA, despite his long-standing criticism of NAFTA and efforts to regain policy space. He instead used USMCA to lock in his ambitious labour reforms, just as NAFTA was used in the 1990s to lock in trade liberalisation.</p> |
| spellingShingle | international political economy international development international relations International trade Arnaud, L From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title | From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title_full | From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title_fullStr | From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title_full_unstemmed | From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title_short | From NAFTA to USMCA: power, path dependence, and protectionism |
| title_sort | from nafta to usmca power path dependence and protectionism |
| topic | international political economy international development international relations International trade |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arnaudl fromnaftatousmcapowerpathdependenceandprotectionism |