Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells
Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Elsevier
2018
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| _version_ | 1797087234769289216 |
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| author | Orr, S Young, M Stelfox, D Curran, J Viles, H |
| author_facet | Orr, S Young, M Stelfox, D Curran, J Viles, H |
| author_sort | Orr, S |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T02:32:55Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:a7d92cbb-149d-4603-ac6f-6438f1bd003f |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T02:32:55Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:a7d92cbb-149d-4603-ac6f-6438f1bd003f2022-03-27T02:57:15ZWind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spellsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:a7d92cbb-149d-4603-ac6f-6438f1bd003fSymplectic Elements at OxfordElsevier2018Orr, SYoung, MStelfox, DCurran, JViles, HWind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact façades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently. |
| spellingShingle | Orr, S Young, M Stelfox, D Curran, J Viles, H Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title_full | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title_fullStr | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title_short | Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
| title_sort | wind driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the united kingdom novel metrics for characterising rain spells |
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