Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks

When breaks occur, equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) based on cointegration face forecasting problems. We investigate approaches to alleviate forecast failure following a location shift, including updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future impact of an 'intern...

Disgrifiad llawn

Manylion Llyfryddiaeth
Prif Awduron: Castle, J, Hendry, D, Fawcett, N
Fformat: Working paper
Cyhoeddwyd: University of Oxford 2008