Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMW...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2021
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| _version_ | 1826291113013542912 |
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| author | Chevuturi, A Turner, AG Johnson, S Weisheimer, A Shonk, J Stockdale, TN Senan, R |
| author_facet | Chevuturi, A Turner, AG Johnson, S Weisheimer, A Shonk, J Stockdale, TN Senan, R |
| author_sort | Chevuturi, A |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981–2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T02:54:30Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:aecf36a3-91b3-47ed-bd64-9ce2185e52c3 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T02:54:30Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:aecf36a3-91b3-47ed-bd64-9ce2185e52c32022-03-27T03:45:15ZForecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:aecf36a3-91b3-47ed-bd64-9ce2185e52c3EnglishSymplectic ElementsSpringer2021Chevuturi, ATurner, AGJohnson, SWeisheimer, AShonk, JStockdale, TNSenan, RAccurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981–2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall. |
| spellingShingle | Chevuturi, A Turner, AG Johnson, S Weisheimer, A Shonk, J Stockdale, TN Senan, R Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title | Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title_full | Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title_fullStr | Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title_short | Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5) |
| title_sort | forecast skill of the indian monsoon and its onset in the ecmwf seasonal forecasting system 5 seas5 |
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