Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability
The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influenc...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2021
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| _version_ | 1797106945633550336 |
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| author | Leach, NJL Weisheimer, A Allen, MR Palmer, T |
| author_facet | Leach, NJL Weisheimer, A Allen, MR Palmer, T |
| author_sort | Leach, NJL |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influence on extreme events. We propose that using forecast models that successfully predicted the event in question could increase the robustness of such estimates. Using a successful forecast means we can be confident that the model is able to faithfully represent the characteristics of the specific extreme event. We use this forecast-based methodology to estimate the direct radiative impact of increased CO2 concentrations (one component, but not the entirety, of human influence) on the European heatwave of February 2019. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:09:36Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:b13fd12e-cb86-4e7e-b73f-b6579fdd331a |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:09:36Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:b13fd12e-cb86-4e7e-b73f-b6579fdd331a2022-05-30T09:29:59ZForecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictabilityJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:b13fd12e-cb86-4e7e-b73f-b6579fdd331aEnglishSymplectic ElementsNational Academy of Sciences2021Leach, NJLWeisheimer, AAllen, MRPalmer, TThe question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influence on extreme events. We propose that using forecast models that successfully predicted the event in question could increase the robustness of such estimates. Using a successful forecast means we can be confident that the model is able to faithfully represent the characteristics of the specific extreme event. We use this forecast-based methodology to estimate the direct radiative impact of increased CO2 concentrations (one component, but not the entirety, of human influence) on the European heatwave of February 2019. |
| spellingShingle | Leach, NJL Weisheimer, A Allen, MR Palmer, T Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title | Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title_full | Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title_fullStr | Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title_short | Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| title_sort | forecast based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leachnjl forecastbasedattributionofawinterheatwavewithinthelimitofpredictability AT weisheimera forecastbasedattributionofawinterheatwavewithinthelimitofpredictability AT allenmr forecastbasedattributionofawinterheatwavewithinthelimitofpredictability AT palmert forecastbasedattributionofawinterheatwavewithinthelimitofpredictability |