| Summary: | <p>This thesis examines macro developments in environmental public opinion to not only discern the patterns and driving factors of these changes, but to also investigate the potential consequences of such. Given the lack of climate opinion data, it first examines existing temporal measures of cross-national climate concern, and how well these align across survey organisations. As the attention given to the environment by the public has fluctuated over time, a British-focused investigation then examines how monthly changes in public salience between 2006-2019 may be linked to agenda-setting forces including media coverage, parliamentary debate, environmental protest, as well as other exogenous factors. Considering the surge in green party support in the 2021 German elections, this theoretical approach is then extended to examine changing green support in Germany between 1994-2019.</p>
<p>Findings show that cross-national metrics of climate opinion do not always align, highlighting issues with relying on a single survey to establish cross-national differences. They also indicate that the global public have become more climate conscious, that is they increasingly recognise the seriousness of climate change as a problem, with this now at its highest ever level. Both British and German analyses find that protest activity is important in understanding environmental public opinion dynamics; protest can be predicted by public attention levels, but in turn, is successful in increasing broader environmental salience. The British analysis additionally suggests media coverage moves in response to public attention rather than the reciprocal, and that public attention may drop following heightened political attention. Relatedly, in Germany media is also not predictive of green support. Levels of public attention to the environment were previously predictive of changes in party support, however, this is no longer the case. Instead, monthly changes in the perceived importance of the environment to the public are occurring after changes in green support. These findings provide important insight into shifting opinion on a global phenomenon with geopolitical significance.</p>
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