Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations.
We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the...
| Egile Nagusiak: | , , , , |
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| Formatua: | Journal article |
| Hizkuntza: | English |
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2002
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| _version_ | 1826293623909515264 |
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| author | Forest, C Stone, P Sokolov, A Allen, M Webster, MD |
| author_facet | Forest, C Stone, P Sokolov, A Allen, M Webster, MD |
| author_sort | Forest, C |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T03:33:00Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:bb5a1fa6-5287-4bd0-b6f0-6f8b8596b26d |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T03:33:00Z |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:bb5a1fa6-5287-4bd0-b6f0-6f8b8596b26d2022-03-27T05:16:21ZQuantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations.Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:bb5a1fa6-5287-4bd0-b6f0-6f8b8596b26dEnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2002Forest, CStone, PSokolov, AAllen, MWebster, MDWe derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report. |
| spellingShingle | Forest, C Stone, P Sokolov, A Allen, M Webster, MD Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title | Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title_full | Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title_short | Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. |
| title_sort | quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT forestc quantifyinguncertaintiesinclimatesystempropertieswiththeuseofrecentclimateobservations AT stonep quantifyinguncertaintiesinclimatesystempropertieswiththeuseofrecentclimateobservations AT sokolova quantifyinguncertaintiesinclimatesystempropertieswiththeuseofrecentclimateobservations AT allenm quantifyinguncertaintiesinclimatesystempropertieswiththeuseofrecentclimateobservations AT webstermd quantifyinguncertaintiesinclimatesystempropertieswiththeuseofrecentclimateobservations |