Post-conflict Risks.
Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and reduction of the risk of a recurring conflict. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be effective in economic recovery. In this article, the authors concentrate on the other challenge--risk reduction. The post-conflic...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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SAGE Publications
2008
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| _version_ | 1826296753916215296 |
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| author | Collier, P Hoeffler, A Söderbom, M |
| author_facet | Collier, P Hoeffler, A Söderbom, M |
| author_sort | Collier, P |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and reduction of the risk of a recurring conflict. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be effective in economic recovery. In this article, the authors concentrate on the other challenge--risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: nearly half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. The authors find that economic development substantially reduces risks, but it takes a long time. They also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results, the authors cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the post-conflict peace. Based on these results, the authors suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict, this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:21:12Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:cb14f533-8a48-4699-9497-891801918832 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:21:12Z |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publisher | SAGE Publications |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:cb14f533-8a48-4699-9497-8918019188322022-03-27T07:12:13ZPost-conflict Risks.Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:cb14f533-8a48-4699-9497-891801918832EnglishDepartment of Economics - ePrintsSAGE Publications2008Collier, PHoeffler, ASöderbom, MPost-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and reduction of the risk of a recurring conflict. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be effective in economic recovery. In this article, the authors concentrate on the other challenge--risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: nearly half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. The authors find that economic development substantially reduces risks, but it takes a long time. They also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results, the authors cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the post-conflict peace. Based on these results, the authors suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict, this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country. |
| spellingShingle | Collier, P Hoeffler, A Söderbom, M Post-conflict Risks. |
| title | Post-conflict Risks. |
| title_full | Post-conflict Risks. |
| title_fullStr | Post-conflict Risks. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Post-conflict Risks. |
| title_short | Post-conflict Risks. |
| title_sort | post conflict risks |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT collierp postconflictrisks AT hoefflera postconflictrisks AT soderbomm postconflictrisks |