Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA
Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are being ma...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Elsevier
2012
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| _version_ | 1826296781240008704 |
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| author | Hickman, R Saxena, S Banister, D Ashiru, O |
| author_facet | Hickman, R Saxena, S Banister, D Ashiru, O |
| author_sort | Hickman, R |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO<sub>2</sub> transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term – incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) – to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives., , The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO<sub>2</sub> aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:21:37Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:cb362e24-a3c9-47f4-b127-a4d6d6809b8f |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:21:37Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:cb362e24-a3c9-47f4-b127-a4d6d6809b8f2022-03-27T07:13:14ZExamining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCAJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:cb362e24-a3c9-47f4-b127-a4d6d6809b8fTransport Studies UnitElsevier2012Hickman, RSaxena, SBanister, DAshiru, OClimate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO<sub>2</sub> transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term – incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) – to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives., , The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO<sub>2</sub> aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures. |
| spellingShingle | Hickman, R Saxena, S Banister, D Ashiru, O Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title | Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title_full | Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title_fullStr | Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title_short | Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA |
| title_sort | examining transport futures with scenario analysis and mca |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hickmanr examiningtransportfutureswithscenarioanalysisandmca AT saxenas examiningtransportfutureswithscenarioanalysisandmca AT banisterd examiningtransportfutureswithscenarioanalysisandmca AT ashiruo examiningtransportfutureswithscenarioanalysisandmca |