Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective
The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast sys tems (the European Centre for...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Wiley
2019
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| _version_ | 1797095856366682112 |
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| author | Parker, T Woollings, T Weisheimer, A O'Reilly, C Baker, L Shaffrey, L |
| author_facet | Parker, T Woollings, T Weisheimer, A O'Reilly, C Baker, L Shaffrey, L |
| author_sort | Parker, T |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast sys tems (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s seasonal forecast system, and the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century long atmosphere-only experiment (using the ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realised so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of mod els analysed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not trans late to enhanced seasonal forecast skill. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:33:57Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:cf4a30e2-a963-49ed-8fe5-24205a920329 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:33:57Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:cf4a30e2-a963-49ed-8fe5-24205a9203292022-03-27T07:41:25ZSeasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspectiveJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:cf4a30e2-a963-49ed-8fe5-24205a920329Symplectic Elements at OxfordWiley2019Parker, TWoollings, TWeisheimer, AO'Reilly, CBaker, LShaffrey, LThe winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has varied on interannual and decadal timescales over the last century, associated with variations in the speed and latitude of the eddy driven jet stream. This paper uses hindcasts from two operational seasonal forecast sys tems (the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s seasonal forecast system, and the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system) and a century long atmosphere-only experiment (using the ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System model) to relate seasonal prediction skill in the NAO to these aspects of jet variability. This shows that the NAO skill realised so far arises from interannual variations in the jet, largely associated with its latitude rather than speed. There likely remains further potential for predictability on longer, decadal timescales. In the small sample of mod els analysed here, improved representation of the structure of jet variability does not trans late to enhanced seasonal forecast skill. |
| spellingShingle | Parker, T Woollings, T Weisheimer, A O'Reilly, C Baker, L Shaffrey, L Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title | Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title_full | Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title_short | Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| title_sort | seasonal predictability of the winter north atlantic oscillation from a jet stream perspective |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT parkert seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective AT woollingst seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective AT weisheimera seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective AT oreillyc seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective AT bakerl seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective AT shaffreyl seasonalpredictabilityofthewinternorthatlanticoscillationfromajetstreamperspective |